Volume 2 Issue 1 January – June 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility—specifically interest rate, inflation, and money supply—and stock market return in Nepal, represented by the NEPSE index. The primary purpose is to determine how these macroeconomic variables influence stock market performance in an emerging economic context. Employing a descriptive and causal research design, the study utilizes monthly time-series data from 2015 to 2023, with variables operationalized using the 91-day treasury bill rate (interest rate), consumer price index (inflation), and broad money supply (M2). Statistical analyses, including correlation and multiple regression, reveal that interest rates have a significant negative impact on stock market returns, while money supply shows a small but significant positive effect. Inflation demonstrates a weak and statistically insignificant influence. The model's explanatory power is limited, accounting for only 11.3% of the variation in stock returns, suggesting other non-economic factors may also play a role. The study concludes that while certain macroeconomic variables significantly influence NEPSE returns, overall stock market behavior in Nepal remains partially explained by these factors, highlighting the importance of considering broader economic and investor sentiment dynamics. These findings hold practical implications for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions aiming to enhance market stability and efficiency. Keywords: Macroeconomic Volatility, Stock Market Return, Interest Rate, Money Supply, Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE).

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of social media influencers on the purchase intentions of cosmetic products in Butwal, Nepal. Data were collected through a purposive sampling technique from 368 customers residing in Butwal who purchase cosmetic products. A self-administered questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale was used to gather responses. The study employed a descriptive and causal-comparative research design, utilizing correlation and regression analysis to examine the relationships between influencer attributes and purchase intention. The findings indicate that Attractiveness and Homophily are the most influential factors shaping consumers' purchase intentions. Consumers are more likely to trust and be influenced by visually appealing and relatable influencers, as these characteristics foster a stronger emotional connection and perceived credibility. While Trustworthiness and Informative Value also contribute to purchase intention, their impact is relatively lower. Conversely, Entertainment Value and Congruence do not significantly influence purchase intention, indicating that consumers prioritize personal connection and aesthetics over entertainment or brand alignment. Brands aiming to enhance their marketing effectiveness should focus on collaborating with influencers who possess high attractiveness and relatability, as these attributes have the greatest potential to drive engagement and increase cosmetic product sales. Keywords: Social Media Influencers, Purchase Intention, Cosmetic Products, Attractiveness, and Homophily.

Abstract

This study is conducted to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Nepal where dependent variable is NEPSE index return and independent variables are base rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, broad money, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product of each years starting from FY BS 1994 to FY BS 2023 of 30 years of macroeconomic variables were taken as confined as time series data. The descriptive and casual research design has been used. The secondary sources of data were obtained from annual report of the Nepal Stock Exchange, ministry of finance and economic bulletin of Nepal Rastra Bank. The study explores the Pearson correlation coefficients for NEPSE with various economic variables, revealing a range of significant relationships. NEPSE shows a strong positive correlation with USD, M2, and FDI, all statistically significant at the 0.01 level, indicating a robust association with the stock market. However, BR shows a weak, marginally significant negative correlation with NEPSE at the 0.10 levels, while the correlation with CPI and GDP is weak and statistically insignificant, suggesting minimal impact from inflation and overall economic growth. The regression analysis further supports these findings, showing that BR and M2 are significantly influence NEPSE, with BR having a negative but M2 is positive. Other variables such as CPI, USD, FDI and GDP lack significant relationships with NEPSE, highlighting that currency strength, money supply, and foreign investment are the most influential factors, while domestic indicators like inflation and GDP have minimal relevance in explaining NEPSE’s movements. Keywords: Index return, base rate, exchange rate, broad money, FDI and GDP.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate how macroeconomic and firm-specific factors affect Nepal's commercial banks' share prices. The study's independent variables are company size (SIZE), earnings per share (EPS), return on assets (ROA), dividend per share (DPS), inflation (INF), interest rates (IR), and gross domestic product (GDP). The dependent variable is market price per share (MPS). The study makes use of secondary panel data encompassing ten major commercial banks over a ten-year period, from the fiscal year 2013–14 to 2023–24. To ensure systematic and insightful analysis, descriptive statistical tools, ratio analysis, correlation, and regression tests were employed. The results show that EPS and MPS have a strong and statistically significant positive association, indicating that profitability is a major factor in determining stock prices and investor perceptions. Likewise, DPS and Inflation (INF) have positive impact on MPS. Conversely, ROA has a significant negative effect on MPS. On the other hand, variables such as firm size (SIZE), interest rates (IR), and GDP do not show a significant impact on MPS, implying that investors tend to focus more on firm-specific factors like EPS and DPS rather than broader macroeconomic indicators or the bank’s overall size. In conclusion, EPS emerges as a crucial determinant of MPS, underscoring the importance of profitability in enhancing market valuation. Keywords: Earnings per share, Return on assets, Dividend per share, Inflation, Interest rates, GDP, Market price per share, Correlation, and Regression.